The devastating double leak

Cabinet leaks are never fun. Unless you’re on the other side of the chamber and can dine out for weeks at a time on the information. There’s a couple of things alarming about the recent leaks, both regarding petrol.The first leak regarded Martin Ferguson’s objections to the Fuel Watch scheme inside the apparent sanctity of Cabinet; and he was forced to front the press with an admission of arguing against it in Cabinet, but he backed the policy as Cabinet had decided it. Embarrassing.

The second, and in my opinion far more damaging, appeared last night in a Laurie Oakes exclusive. It showed that several departments (Finance, Industry, Treasury and the PM’s own DPM&C) had provided advice that the introduction of the Fuel Watch scheme nationally would impose high compliance costs on independent retailers, and eventually have an upward influence on prices rather than the opposite.

The FuelWatch scheme has at its centre an idea to set the prices the night before and not have them change for the duration of the day, under threat of fines and other penalties. Even if this is on a day by day basis, it resembles the introduction of a price floor and a price ceiling, which tends to disrupt prices. The effort of attempting to collate prices from across an entire nation is admirable, but by forcing service stations to set their prices in advance may preclude consumers from accessing fuel at the lower prices. Over the course of say, a week, the average price will be set for the entire week; eliminating the fuel price drop on Tuesdays. Is this really going to help working families*, who know of that lower price?

The Government has firmly relied on the economic modelling from the ACCC, but newspaper headlines around the country suggest he has actually misrepresented the advice. A highlighter was passed across the table in Question Time yesterday, which asked the PM to highlight the relevant sections of the ACCC report, an offer that was passed up. Kevin Rudd was shuffling papers like a casino croupier, putting them into different piles on the Table.

But back to Cabinet leaks. It’s very worrying to have a Cabinet leaking this early into the life of a government. The electronic system for circulating Cabinet papers may not be as secure, or the bureaucrats who had their advice ignored got angry. All sensitive leaks are investigated, but the culprit is often never found. Which leads to the suggestion that Ferguson himself may be angry about being overridden in Cabinet, or that his criticism was not given a fair hearing. Marn’ being of the Victorian Left, could this be the factions reasserting themselves. If their views aren’t respected, they may leak.

As I recall, the various incarnation of the Howard Government rarely leaked, as Howard made sure that each of the opposing views was heard, even if he didn't act on it. Cabinet was tight. If every minister's decision is leaked, it just encourages discussion out of cabinet. Ironically, the corridors of Parliament House are far less secure than the Cabinet Room. As petrol prices continue to rise, maybe a bit of panic is settling in. After the Opposition's divisions on the excise, it must be a welcome change to have some disunity in the government.


*If I hear the term working families once more from Kevin Rudd, I’m liable to put a brick through my television.

Petrol Competition

Petrol once again has dominated politics, this time with the Prime Minister admitting that more could be done on the GST applied to the fuel excise, or the entire excise. Any change would certainly impact on the budget of states, through the GST collection. Maybe Brendan Nelson has found a way to cause some disquiet amongst the wall to wall Labor governments? As I’ve said before, I disagree with the “five cents off” provision, mainly as it can be easily wiped out by an overnight change in the oil price.
Then again, politics is never always necessarily about what’s right for the economy, often rank populism gets you air.

Brendan Nelson is starting to find his own way. An opposition leader always lurches from one ‘important/crucial test’ to another. In Nelson’s case, it was navigating the opening of the new parliament, climate change and most recently the Budget Reply. Unfortunately, it never stops, as the Gippsland by-election is the next stop. But Nelson has managed to appeal to Rudd’s me-tooism, and he’s now (reviewing) at least the budget measures. The next couple of weeks will be tough for Rudd, as he has to deal with the comment that his government has done everything physically possible to help with the cost of living. The increase in fuel prices must transfer through to the cost of consumption goods; ‘working families’ must be really pleased that no further help is in the offing from government.

To be fair to Rudd and his government, a lot of the price increases are not due to Australian factors; petrol is a component of the CPI, but he must deal with the promises made at the election to all those he promised life would be better.

So You Think You Can Sue...

In one of those weird alignments of celebrity, politics, war and scandal, the allegations aired in a Department of Defence document smack of chauvinism, and those stereotypes the army is desperate to avoid. The story was broken by former Bulletin editor Gary Linnell; who pointed out a slightly seedy connection or pun:

Zaetta was the co-host of 1990s television show Who Dares Wins, which is also the motto of the Australian SAS.

The claims were contained in a defence briefing document which had as recipients Defence Minister and other departmental honchos suggested that the Bollywood star had engaged in inappropriate conduct with troops, despite briefings that fraternizing with troops would be a breach of internal Defence regulation. Kevin Rudd has to deal with the fallout:

Defence has apologised in terms of their handling of this particular document.

There is a full defence investigation under way in relation to two matters - what transpired there (Afghanistan) and, secondly, on the question of the actual handling of this document.

He also reaffirmed Ms Zaetta's right to sue if the document proved to be incorrect. The defamation payout may however not compensate her for the mud that may stick to her and rub off on a Bollywood career, with The Hindustan Times' main online headline: "Who dares loses. Starlet Tania romped with troops in war zone."

In a conservative movie culture where producers have been sued for allowing an on screen kiss, even the allegations of misbehaviour may be enough to end her career.

And thanks to the magic of Youtube, here's a bit of Tania circa 2002, co-hosting Who Dares Wins with Mike Whitney.

The apology is in order, but how much will it cost.

Australia recently got something off its chest, an apology for acts perpetrated on its indigenous people, removing aboriginal children from their families and placing them with 'white' Australians or creating them state wards. Many feel the apology it is certainly a step in the right direction, and ends a period where a government flatly denied apologising for something that was not directly doing. Kevin Rudd put it this way:

"We have to remove the great stain on this nation's sould. It's time for fresh ideas for Australia's future."

A change of tack from where John Howard had previously stated:

Australians of this generation should not be required to accept guilt and blame for past actions and policies over which they had no control

It would to unwise suggest that he had no care for the aboriginal people, the draconian intervention in the Northern Territory, to protect many from dangers within their own communities, has started to bear fruit:

Cynthia Watson is one of 100 people who live in the Mount Nancy aboriginal township on the fringe of Alice Springs, one of the towns covered in the legislation. Police and soldiers have replaced town drunks, and Watson, 25, spends her welfare on feeding her four children, aged 2 to 11.

"No more grog means we have fewer fights,'' said Watson, who is camping with her children in Canberra.

There is a place for acknowledging mistakes in politics, and the concensus was heartening, many in Australia and around the world feel that Australia has matured a little after the apology has been given.

When I was younger, I remember listening to a speech in legalese from a QC, who explained that governments are much the same as private companies when it comes to the continuity of its legal form. A change of government does not equate to a dissolution of partnership, but moreso to a change of directors. Hence an admission of past liability does open a government up to legal preceedings. That QC is likely to be offering his services pro-bono to pursue the case: I remember him saying in particular nothing can be done until the governments makes some sort of admission. You'll forgive me for not remembering the the case law he was relying on.

The West Australian Aboriginal Legal Service has already started preparing a test case, which in the case of it suceeding, would today's twenty-somethings paying towards something that did not occur in their generation. The sums being bandied about vary.

Swept up in their goodwill they may have forgotten the consequences of such an admission. Howard surely saw this, and maybe his reasoning for not offering an apology was not only based on his sense of egalitarianism, but also on the future impact of apoligies on the nations' finances. I'm not saying it would be the only reason though.

Keating pops up again...speaking ill of the dead.

As an Australian Prime Minister, I hold Paul Keating in reasonably high regard. He was a treasurer who prepared Australia for the 90s and 00s by deregulating vast swathes of the economy and floating the dollar inter alia. He was also highly eloquent, and was not afraid to trade barbs in Parliament and out, dressed in his Zegna suits.

"All tip and no iceberg", "desiccated coconut araldyted to the seat", "I want to do you slowly" are all phrases that have entered the public consciousness thanks to him. Keating's failing, and there's a little bit of it in each of us, is to think himself invincible. His prompt exit from public life after his defeat to Howard in 1996 has made him bitter, and the only time Keating seems to appear is when his own legacy is attacked, or he is attacking someone else's: even if they are on his side of politics. The pithy soundbite became his tool, and he cannot point to any great achievements on his own behalf, or in assisting Australia and Australians since leaving. I always wondered whether he would be proud being remembered, post-politics, as a walking soundbite.

Keating has served up a septic cocktail of old age, vitriol and grudge in flaming Padraic McGuinness. Padraic was certainly an eccentric character, who is difficult to tag with any specific political tag. He's edited the AFR and Quadrant as well as being an economist for a Soviet Bank. Peter Coleman, a former editor of The Bulletin remembers:

You would find him at the anarchist meetings in Whitechapel, probably heckling the speakers, or in Hampstead giving blood for the Vietcong while getting stuck into the communists, or in the pages of Oz magazine ridiculing prohibitionist drug laws and moronic druggies.

I've met 'Paddy' on a couple of occasions, and despite his penchant for black dressing, which I recall had something to do with combining the roles of priest, satanist and confessor, as well as not showing dirt (according to him), found him fascinating. I have to confess that some of the subject matter flew right over my head, and I was forced into the awkward 'smiling and nodding' routine hoping the line of conversation would progress no further.

With some of Quadrant now being online, and widely distributed, it's growing as a literary journal of note. Padraic made sure that there were no sacred cows, whether they were the sacred belief of the left or right, as long as the debate was cooly academic. The material is often inaccessible, and the subject matter obscure. Keith Windshuttle truly came to prominence when he was published by McGuinness, on an alternate interpretation of early Australian settlement and the 'Stolen Generation'. So despite being labeled 'right-wing' like its editor, it was more difficult to classify, as it promoted debate on topics important to the Nation.

Keating of course is a master of timing, and has waited to have the last say before Padraic's funeral. He rants:

In a long public life I have made it a rule never to speak ill of the dead; to not criticise someone who can no longer respond to the criticism.I am going to break that rule in the case of Paddy McGuinness.

I do so for this reason: in the last two decades of his life, McGuinness heaped more vitriol and contumely on me than anyone in public life."Working on the notion that 'the dogs may bark but the caravan moves on', I rarely responded to his unreasonable and unceasing tirades.

So, in that piggy bank of reasonableness, I have a massive store of credits that, in all fairness, I am in a moral position to draw on."

Paul, how childish. Just because you can't defame the dead, doesn't mean you should. You have had the chance to resolve your differences with him for the last two decades of his life, and you've never complained or expressed concern about Padraic's actions in the public domain. Could it be that the complaints you make are unreasonable, and that bravado exterior is concealing a cowardly runt? You've just admitted that your own moral are lacking, by confessing you made an exception in his case.

It's ironic he should talk about banking and pigs. Does he not forget how his personal bank account was allegedly credited from a Darling Downs piggery?

Vale Padraic.

Cabotage: Sabbotage or Sage?

Is the Australian government showing its first signs of shifting left, despite its promises of economic conservatism?

KEVIN Rudd will clamp down on overuse of foreign-owned ships to transport freight around the nation's coastline in a bid to bolster the shipping industry. The Prime Minister is also set to require foreign vessels in Australian waters to observe an International Labour Organisation convention guaranteeing fair pay and conditions for all seafarers. In a shift in approach from that of the previous Howard government, Labor will review coastal shipping laws to uncover ways to lift the domestic shipping fleet's share of the domestic freight market from its current level of about 80 per cent.

The last I remember of the ILO was when they scuttled attempts to man the wharves in Australia with non-union labour, circa Peter Reith and the early days of the docks crisis. The Maritime Union of Australia, at the time on the receiving end of those reforms, will certainly be the main beneficiary. Paddy Crumlin, the MUA secretary was certainly excited after meeting with Albanese:

"He said we'd be going back to the platform."

The platform in question consists of some ambiguously worded resolutions from last year's Labor national conference. My concern here is the inflationary effect of higher wages on the dockside (and at sea) being passed on to consumers and aiding inflation which is already rising. It is of such concern that the former Razor Gang could now be renamed the Axe Gang. Furthermore, as foreign operators are locked out of operating domestic cargo routes, a regime of quasi-protectionism begins to appear. Cabotage is not a good policy for a government that had promised to be freer of union influence than its predecessors, and this looks suspiciously like payback.

Explanation of Cabotage: The right of a country to operate internal traffic, especially air traffic, using its own carriers and not those of other countries

Update: Preview Clip from the ABC(AU) dramatisation of the events on the waterfront.

Oh Corey...

I wouldn't normally descend into this crass story, but I can't help but have my two cents worth; I've even created a new tag to go with this!

Young Corey Delaney, a sixteen year old resident of Narre Warren in Melbourne's south east (Australia), did what every teenager dreams of: He threw a party. But Corey is a member of generation z, who know exactly how to harness the power of Web 2.0, and advertised it openly on his myspace account, and no doubt details were forwarded by that other tool of modern technology; SMS. Either that, or he's foolish enough to underestimate it's reach.

In the end, 500 yoofs arrived, and like any party where gatecrashers tend to fill it, got out of control. It's the same all over the world: gathering of teenagers+alcohol+lack of supervision= trouble. The neighbours called the local constabulary, but the first patrol was repelled with missile thrown by a thronging mob. The air wing and dog squad had to be deployed to convince guests that it was well beyond last drinks. The Commissioner of Police wishes for $AU20,000 to be repaid for the extra call-outs. His exploits garnered him international attention, with grabs all over the world, even on Sky News (UK). Have a gander here.

Parents obviously distressed, and wanting to talk to their child. Probably embarrassed too, to have to deal with their son through various media forms, as he's not returning their calls and has decided to hide with friends while the heat dies down.

I'm a little sad that the media hasn't gone after him, and I bloody hope there'll be no outlets paying him for an exclusive; it'd just encourage him further. Glad that I'll forever be more eloquent than him:
Corey Worthington Delaney wrote at 1:20am

:take it:BREAKIT ^luvin dis shit^
Ur all Tha GOOD type !!!~~~Every1 HiT up
tha C-nut
Fkn (maKe) me a groUp Offica!
Sik.

Corey's Myspace Profile is here, but I'm not sure if it's him being over the top, or an ironic joke being put together by people who aren't fans of his. His facebook profile looks to be no better, with his last status update suggesting he is "rearranging his tackle".

Is this a reflection of a society that gives celebrity status to anyone who causes mischief. I hope his star fizzles as quickly as it appeared. He's blown any chance of a normal job, but he maybe he didn't want that in the first place. He's also an enterprising little bugger, who was charging $1 donations until the venue was full, and then $10 for any late comers. Business acumen...next he'll be fronting motivational seminars. A (non-idolistic) gem from Yok who sums it up perfectly:

I fail to see what is so cool about a bunch of idiotic teenage gobshites worshipping some preening tool who is leeching fame from fucking up, shirking responsibility, hiding in his house when shit went down and hiding like a bitch from his patents, to be honest.but if you all want to live in your own little world, feel free, just remember that you'll be bagging my groceries for the next 20 years.

Media Performer of the Week

The timing of the Federal election in Australia, and the change of government before the first sitting of parliament creates a vacuum, which can be filled with other news, or politics can be firmly put on the agenda. Kudos then to new Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen, who has managed to inject himself into debates and even occasionally trump his boss, Wayne Swan.

The member for Prospect in Sydney's East, and member of the NSW Right faction, has excelled where his predecessor Peter Dutton always lived in the shadow of Peter Costello. Appropriately, Dutton has been given a shadow finance shadow position.
Let's take a look:

January 13 2008
The Age: Whale hunt on as Greenpeace finds Japan's killer ship
Restraint urged on both sides of the conflict.

January 12 2008
The Australian: Labor to hunt wealthiest tax cheats
Rich tax cheats to be targets.

The Age: Decline no reason to raise rates: Bowen
Reserve Bank independent, but US market troubles should not have banks raising rates.

Herald Sun: Costello to challenge Nelson?
Jumps on Costello for not making clear his leadership ambitions, and hedging with a Macquarie Bank position.

Sydney Morning Herald: Ad crackdown to 'add balance': govt
Airlines and Telcos would need to advertise more inclusive prices so as not to deceive customers

January 11 2008
Fin 24: Clampdown on price-fixers
Cartels face jail time for colluding.

January 10 2008
Money Management: Govt to undo tax changes
With regard to clearing up the treatment of scrip for scrip transactions

So for creating more news than the Treasurer, he wins the Media Performer of the Week, although politics tends to have few performers, so there is no guarantee this will be awarded every week. He can't be accused of being lazy. In the guise of a boxing title belt, consider Bowen to hold the title unless someone outdoes him.

Final Election Results

The Age, through the AEC, reports the final figures from the 2007 Federal Election after collating, checking and distributing preferences. As noted in the article, some interesting results from seats which would now fall into the 'Marginal Labor' category at the next Federal election. These include such as Bennelong, Corangamite and Deakin. On the flip side, there are Liberal seats that would now be considered 'Very Marginal Liberal' such as (triple recount) McEwen, which was not even on the radar of Coalition pollsters as seats at risk before Nov 25th.

Can Fran Bailey retain the seat next time, now that she has lost her ministry, and the profile associated with Australian Tourism campaigns such as the controversial WTBHAY? Could her association with model Lara Bingle gotten her over the line?

Another Election, and yet another under performance from the Greens. Despite the mainstreaming of Climate Change, partly through Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, as well as Kyoto ratification figuring as an election issue, Bob Brown's party only managed a .60% increase in first preferences across the country. In the Seat of Melbourne, Lindsay Tanner still held on, but the Liberals still managed to outpoll the Greens by a few hundred votes. Another one to watch for next time.

On a statewide basis, the Greens were very confident, almost certain in some quarters, to pick up the final Senate Seat in Victoria. In the wash up, they weren't even close, as David Feeney finished over quota to claim the final spot, which I thought would be fought out between Scott Ryan and Richard DiNatale (who thought he would knock off Bronwyn Pike in the Melbourne District at the previous two State Elections).
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland each returned three Labor and three Coalition Senators, meaning that Kerry Nettle (of "Keep Your Rosaries Off My Ovaries fame) will not sit beyond 1 July.

It is also the end of the Democrats representation in the Senate. With its first Senator in 1977, and a notional balance of power from 1983 to 1996 (when Mal Colston resigned, and they shared the balance of power with Colston and Brian Harradine), the Democrats never quite recovered from the two punch of Meg Lees' defection to Labor in 1997 and the agreement to pass the Coalition's Goods and Services Tax legislation. The constant turnover of leaders (four in six years) never boded well for constant policy positions.

Many calls have been made to continue the Democrats brand, and to ready it for the election. My suggestion would be to follow the example set by the Liberal Democrats in the UK, although not to follow their turnover of leaders (three in two year). The Liberal Democrats' strength in the United Kingdom is their representation on Local Councils, where they are in joint control or control Councils in their own right. Of course, the powers of UK Local Governments are far greater than their Australian counterparts, particularly with regards to Council Tax,

The Democrats can start to build from the bottom up, and rebuild a brand and trust with an electorate that thought they had perished quite some time ago. In three years time they may not be ready to contest another Senate Race, but if they roll out across candidates Local Council quickly, 2013 looks like a resonable chance. I do question the logic of running your most recognised candidate, Laura Chipp (Don Chipp's daughter) in a seat like Isaacs, with apologies to Lyn Allison who think the current leader is either Stott-Despoja or Murray, where she would have made a far better second candidate, or in a very marginal seat (such as McEwen), where her (name) impact could have been of more significance.

Update
In the article on Laura Chipp provided above, The Age's Andra Jackson, suggests that Chipp only needed a 1.5% swing. In an important oversight this was the margin that Ross Fox, the Liberals's candidate, would have needed to take the seat from Labor. Laura needed (only) a 95%+ swing to take it.

Update II
Isn't it nice when you scoop Tim Colebatch? Although I still credit The Age for the original story on the House of Representatives.