The Return of Il Cavalieri?

Romano Prodi's fragile government crumbled yesterday, with the Italian Senate affirmatively voting on a motion on no-confidence. Prodi's thin majority was built on a fractured coalition, and government after his victory over Silvio Berlusconi last year was not expected to be smooth. Just look at the makeup of it:

Mr Prodi's Government, made up of nine parties ranging from Communists to Catholics, was Italy's 61st in 63 years. If elections are held, Mr Berlusconi's opponent on the Left designated as Mr Prodi's successor will be Walter Veltroni, the Mayor of Rome and leader of the new Democratic Party, a fusion of former Communists and liberals.

No surprises then, that Silvio is throwing his hat back in the ring:

The Centre Right popped open champagne bottles last night, with Silvio Berlusconi, the opposition leader and media tycoon, exclaiming jubilantly: "To the ballot boxes!" He predicted that the Centre Right would have a great majority, adding: "The country needs a government that works".

The President, Giorgio Napolitano, now faces a difficult balancing act. He will now consult with the leaders of each of the parties in the parliament, to see if he can string together a coalition from what is available, but Prodi has already ruled out continuing in a prime ministerial capacity.
Both left and right have generally been in disarray since the vote, the former unable to quite grasp they have effectively lost government, and the former fighting amongst themselves to position their different parties as the forerunner of a victorious coalition.

The President would also have the ability to have a caretaker government administer the country until a referendum on electoral reform is held; I think is the cause of all the troubles in the first place; specifically Proportional Representation (PR). Ironically, it was Silvio who converted Italy from a mix of first past the post and PR to full PR for the Chamber of Deputies.

We'll see what happens in the next week or two.

Boris, Ken and some other guy dude get on the tube

The London Mayoral election set for May 1 promises to be interesting, if only for the clash of personalities of major candidates. 'Red' Ken Livingstone is back for a third bite of the cherry. His first win was as an independent candidate, his second after he was welcome back to the Labour fold. Boris Johnson, former editor of The Spectator, and current MP for Henley, is hoping to draw on his self deprecating manner, as well as leveraging appearances on HIGNFY and Top Gear among others, to become a populist mayor. With a salary that is commensurate with that of a UK Cabinet minister (£135k-ish), it's not to be sniffed at. The Liberal Democrat candidate will also feature, but the barbs will be flowing between the two major candidates, and the poor fellow (Brian Haddick) will have to jump in where he can. For a start, he has at least received the backing of Sir Elton John.

The voting system for the London Mayor position is the Supplementary Vote, where voters number their first preference, and their second if they so wish. If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round of counting, then the second preferences are distributed, so that one of the candidates can claim a majority in the second round. It makes the materials put out by smaller candidates important, as they would be able to indicate to whom the second preference should be awarded to. Smaller parties include The Greens, UKIP, BNP, One London, Stop Congestion Charging, and Timeout: who want to act as a balance and shy votes away from the BNP.

The broadcast of the live debate will be at 11pm on Thursday, ITV1.

Final Election Results

The Age, through the AEC, reports the final figures from the 2007 Federal Election after collating, checking and distributing preferences. As noted in the article, some interesting results from seats which would now fall into the 'Marginal Labor' category at the next Federal election. These include such as Bennelong, Corangamite and Deakin. On the flip side, there are Liberal seats that would now be considered 'Very Marginal Liberal' such as (triple recount) McEwen, which was not even on the radar of Coalition pollsters as seats at risk before Nov 25th.

Can Fran Bailey retain the seat next time, now that she has lost her ministry, and the profile associated with Australian Tourism campaigns such as the controversial WTBHAY? Could her association with model Lara Bingle gotten her over the line?

Another Election, and yet another under performance from the Greens. Despite the mainstreaming of Climate Change, partly through Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, as well as Kyoto ratification figuring as an election issue, Bob Brown's party only managed a .60% increase in first preferences across the country. In the Seat of Melbourne, Lindsay Tanner still held on, but the Liberals still managed to outpoll the Greens by a few hundred votes. Another one to watch for next time.

On a statewide basis, the Greens were very confident, almost certain in some quarters, to pick up the final Senate Seat in Victoria. In the wash up, they weren't even close, as David Feeney finished over quota to claim the final spot, which I thought would be fought out between Scott Ryan and Richard DiNatale (who thought he would knock off Bronwyn Pike in the Melbourne District at the previous two State Elections).
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland each returned three Labor and three Coalition Senators, meaning that Kerry Nettle (of "Keep Your Rosaries Off My Ovaries fame) will not sit beyond 1 July.

It is also the end of the Democrats representation in the Senate. With its first Senator in 1977, and a notional balance of power from 1983 to 1996 (when Mal Colston resigned, and they shared the balance of power with Colston and Brian Harradine), the Democrats never quite recovered from the two punch of Meg Lees' defection to Labor in 1997 and the agreement to pass the Coalition's Goods and Services Tax legislation. The constant turnover of leaders (four in six years) never boded well for constant policy positions.

Many calls have been made to continue the Democrats brand, and to ready it for the election. My suggestion would be to follow the example set by the Liberal Democrats in the UK, although not to follow their turnover of leaders (three in two year). The Liberal Democrats' strength in the United Kingdom is their representation on Local Councils, where they are in joint control or control Councils in their own right. Of course, the powers of UK Local Governments are far greater than their Australian counterparts, particularly with regards to Council Tax,

The Democrats can start to build from the bottom up, and rebuild a brand and trust with an electorate that thought they had perished quite some time ago. In three years time they may not be ready to contest another Senate Race, but if they roll out across candidates Local Council quickly, 2013 looks like a resonable chance. I do question the logic of running your most recognised candidate, Laura Chipp (Don Chipp's daughter) in a seat like Isaacs, with apologies to Lyn Allison who think the current leader is either Stott-Despoja or Murray, where she would have made a far better second candidate, or in a very marginal seat (such as McEwen), where her (name) impact could have been of more significance.

Update
In the article on Laura Chipp provided above, The Age's Andra Jackson, suggests that Chipp only needed a 1.5% swing. In an important oversight this was the margin that Ross Fox, the Liberals's candidate, would have needed to take the seat from Labor. Laura needed (only) a 95%+ swing to take it.

Update II
Isn't it nice when you scoop Tim Colebatch? Although I still credit The Age for the original story on the House of Representatives.