Rogue Trader's CV

Thanks to The Deal, Rogue Trader Kerviel's CV is available. I'm not sure if he'll be able to achieve the goal he has set himself now.

KERVIEL Jerome
Jeromekerviel@hotmail.com

OBJECTIVE Reach a position as a retail listed derivative products trader, managing a volatility and Delta One book

EDUCATION
MASTERS in Finance (Organisation and Control of financial markets)University of Lyon, September 2000
Bachelor Degree in Finance University of Nantes, 1996 1999

WORK EXPERIENCE
Societe Generale S.A., Paris, France Trader and Market Maker for Delta One Products March 2004 - Today
Trading : Market making of Listed Delta One products
Including open end and closed end Turbos (Single Stocks, Index, Forex and Rate Futures), ETFs and secondary market for Certificates
ETFs structuration - Management of the collateral with Lyxor Asset Management
Development of managing tools (Excel VBA macro)
New Underlyings Study to develop the product range
Participation to the specification for the implementation of turbos to the Clickoptions platform

Societe Generale S.A., Paris, France Trader Assistant - Basket Trading and Delta One Products
August 2002 - February 2004
Valuation and Risk Analysis explanation for Basket Trading (Single Arbitrage book) and Delta One Products
Strategies Backtestings
Short positions hedge
Process automation and managing tools development

Societe Generale S.A., Paris, France
Middle Office - Referential Team August 2000 - July 2002
Products modeling
Process automation
Excel macro Development for the exotic Desk
Participation to the single referential project

ACTIVITIES
Judo - 8 years practice -
Trainer for children's Sailing

SKILLS
English : working language
Microsoft Office Package - Visual Basic
Licensed for EUREX, XETRA, EURONEXT

The Return of Il Cavalieri?

Romano Prodi's fragile government crumbled yesterday, with the Italian Senate affirmatively voting on a motion on no-confidence. Prodi's thin majority was built on a fractured coalition, and government after his victory over Silvio Berlusconi last year was not expected to be smooth. Just look at the makeup of it:

Mr Prodi's Government, made up of nine parties ranging from Communists to Catholics, was Italy's 61st in 63 years. If elections are held, Mr Berlusconi's opponent on the Left designated as Mr Prodi's successor will be Walter Veltroni, the Mayor of Rome and leader of the new Democratic Party, a fusion of former Communists and liberals.

No surprises then, that Silvio is throwing his hat back in the ring:

The Centre Right popped open champagne bottles last night, with Silvio Berlusconi, the opposition leader and media tycoon, exclaiming jubilantly: "To the ballot boxes!" He predicted that the Centre Right would have a great majority, adding: "The country needs a government that works".

The President, Giorgio Napolitano, now faces a difficult balancing act. He will now consult with the leaders of each of the parties in the parliament, to see if he can string together a coalition from what is available, but Prodi has already ruled out continuing in a prime ministerial capacity.
Both left and right have generally been in disarray since the vote, the former unable to quite grasp they have effectively lost government, and the former fighting amongst themselves to position their different parties as the forerunner of a victorious coalition.

The President would also have the ability to have a caretaker government administer the country until a referendum on electoral reform is held; I think is the cause of all the troubles in the first place; specifically Proportional Representation (PR). Ironically, it was Silvio who converted Italy from a mix of first past the post and PR to full PR for the Chamber of Deputies.

We'll see what happens in the next week or two.

Which UK bank will reveal a Rogue Trader?

UK Banks, their shareholders and the tri-partied supervisory regime will be bracing for the possibility that a financial institution within the UK has its own Rogue Trader problem.

The ripple effect of SocGen's problem will be for the risk management teams to get together with the auditors, and ensure that each of the trades made have a genuine closeout. That is, for every buy order closed, there is a genuine seller and vice versa. I think the key to Jérôme Kerviel's deception is that he knew exactly how to bypass the existing systems (he'd worked in the back office after all), or that the 'error' account was getting a workout. Nick Leeson, knocked one spot further down on the Rogue Hall of Fame, was famous for using account number 8888 to bundle his mis-trades into.

That same ripple effect will be onto the size of these accounts, and checking that there has been no collusion between institutions and their clients. One of the favourite methods goes as follows.

Share trading at $5
Trader sells shares to client at $4.50
Client sells shares at $5 for 50c profit.
The profit is split between the two parties, the insider getting it paid into an offshore account.

This can easily be written off as mistakes, oversights, or 'fat-button' trading. As banks start to account and assess their books and the risks that accompany it, who will be the first to write off?

With the UK being home to several multinational banking companies, who operated in much the same markets as SocGen. But if this can happen to SocGen, the undisputed market leader in derivatives trading, it can happen to anyone. Who in the UK will put up their hand first?

To prevent such further occurences, you need only look at the Chinese Walls regulations that prevent information from flowing from its advisory divisions to its proprietary trading desks. Ie, in advising a company that is making a takeover, information should not be passed to the traders.

In this case a new Chinese Wall, perhaps call it a Jérôme Wall in honour of the man of the hour, should be applied by market supervisors and legislators to ensure greater independence between the trading and backroom/settlement. This should assuage the minds of those who are afraid of Trading Loss Risk, by reducing it.

Update: Fat Button Trade
Financial News online has a countdown of some very funny "fat finger" trades. Genuine mistakes, but rather costly. My favourite is rugby related:

Heads up at Bank of America, September 2006
Not so much wrong-fingered as wrong-balled.

A Bank of America trader’s keyboard was set up to execute an order when the senior trader gave the signal – he just had to press enter. However, he failed to notice an errant rugby ball thrown in his direction, which landed on his keyboard and executed the $50m trade ahead of schedule. The ball thrower, a graduate trainee, was given a severe reprimand but no further action was taken.

Another trader said: “Rugby balls are a regular danger on any trading floor so the victim trader ought to have hedged against this possibility.”

Trader had family problems

According to the AP:

Managers who briefed Union officials on Thursday told them that the trader was having "family problems." The union official said the trader "might have lost his mind a bit"

One of his former teachers, Gisele Reynaud, described Kerviel as a "brilliant" student. She taught him at a university in Lyon, where he graduated in 2000 after an intensive year-long course in how to track, monitor and keep account of the type of trades that he went on to do at Societe Generale. She said the course was very technical and intense, and included accounting, information technology and law. "He was a nice guy," Reynaud said. "He was brilliant".

Rogue Trader's Mugshot

Well, we know what he looks like now, and that he was on a salary of around 100,000 Euros, bonus included, and that he didn't enrich himself in the process. With thanks to the FT for the shot.

Update:
Also we know that he completed a Masters of Market Finance (specialising in Market Operations) from the Lyon 2 University in France, and has been employed as a Trader at Delta One Products, a SocGen subsidiary since 2000. (from a Wink.com search)

Update 2: Again from the FT; Jean-Pierre Mustier, Head of Investment Banking at SocGen on how he did it:

Jean-Pierre Mustier, head of investment banking who had been seen as a potential successor to Mr Bouton, said the position occupied by the rogue trader was only expected to generate €20m of revenue a year. “The specific pattern of his transactions was that they used fake transactions rolled on a permanent basis,” said Mr Mustier.

Société Générale cops the Rogue Trader...to the tune of 4.9 Billion Euros

Société Générale this morning alerted the market that it had lost a significant amount from the actions of a Jérôme Kerviel, rogue trader....the words that send a frisson down the spine of any Hollywood producer, good ones. Less good frissons may be felt of those who worked around and above the as yet unnamed trader; people responsible for his oversight have also been relieved of duty. The trader has, according to a letter from the President of the SG group, been "mis à pied" (stood down).

Before we analyse this latest, let's take a walk down Rogue memory lane, and count the cost of each:

• Brian Hunter; Amaranth Advisors LLC: After studying weather patterns and other data Hunter, Head Energy Trader, made an enormous wrong-way bet that a Katrina-like hurricane would cause the difference between summer and winter natural gas prices to widen dramatically.Instead, a mild hurricane season caused that spread to collapse, wiping out about US$5 billion in value.
  
  Speculation is that Amaranth may have conducted most of its trading away from the Nymex in a bid to "corner" the long contract on natural gas futures. Regulators don't have the same amount of reach in Over the Counter markets as exchanges.
  
  
• Nick Leeson; Barings plc: Probably the most world famous case, inspiring a novel and movie. Leeson placed a short straddle (essentially betting that the Japanese stock market would not move significantly overnight) on Singapore and Nikkei exchanges. However, the Kobe earthquake hit early in the morning on January 17 1995, sending Asian markets, and Leeson's investments, into a tailspin.
  
  Leeson attempted to recoup his losses by making a series of increasingly risky new investments, betting the Nikkei Stock Average would make a rapid recovery. But the recovery failed to materialize, and he succeeded only in digging a deeper hole. Losses eventually reached US$1.4 billion, twice the bank's available trading capital. Barings declared insolvent, and sold to ING for the princely sum of £1.
  
  Sentenced to six and a half years in a Singapore prison, he was released in 1999. In 2005, soccer team Galway United FC named Leeson its General Manager. That same year, Virgin Books published his personal story/self-help book, titled "Back From The Brink, Coping With Stress."
  
  
• Yasuo Hamanaka, Sumitomo: Hamanaka was also known as "Mr. Five Percent," according to the New York Times, because he once bought as much as 5% of all the copper traded in the world each year. He pleaded guilty in 1997 to hiding more than US$2.6 billion in trading losses and served seven years in prison. Copper futures plunged in 1996 after it was discovered that Hamanaka had artificially propped up prices.
  
  
• John Rusnak, Allied Irish Bank: Rusnak lost millions for Allfirst Financial, an Allied subsidiary, by incorrectly gauging the movement of the Japanese yen against the dollar. He forged paperwork to cover further trades and losses he says he incurred in a failed attempt to win the money back for Allfirst, based in Baltimore. He lost US$691 million over five years before his activities were discovered in 2002.
  
  
• Unknown “fat-fingered” trader, Mizuho Securities: Trader sold 610,000 shares in job recruiting company J-Com Co. for 1 yen apiece, instead of an intended sale of 1 share at 610,000 yen. Mizuho said it was unable to cancel the order, causing it to lose about US$340 million. The mistake was attributed to the “fat-finger” syndrome, shorthand for gaffes made when traders hit the wrong button on a keyboard and lose a bundle.
  The Tokyo stock exchange later acknowledged that a glitch in its system made it impossible to cancel the trade. Mizuho and the exchange have discussed sharing some of the losses, but have so far failed to reach an agreement.
  
  
• Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt bought more than 100 million ounces of silver bullion in 1979 and 1980, causing silver prices to soar to a record of more than $50 an ounce before a sharp plunge. After the crash, the brothers were left with silver obligations of $1.75 billion and a silver hoard of 59 million ounces valued then at $1.2 billion, indicating a loss of US$550 million, according to the Journal. The Hunts, whose fortune was once estimated at $6 billion, filed for bankruptcy protection in 1988.

So if that's a hall of fame of the worst of financial trading losses, then this is a pretty bad one. I would suspect that he had a good working knowledge of the back room operations of the bank, and the exact limits on trading so that he could really make the most of his position. Although the bank has been batted around by the credit crunch, it has plenty of assets against which to increase its working capital, borrowing to "more than cover" its recent losses due to the activities.

Fitch has dropped its long term issuer rating from "AA" à "AA-" estimating that if the the fraud has happened in specific circumstances, it "raises questions on the effectiveness of (risk management) systems and creates a reputations risk for the company. S&P has will be reviewing its rating with a view to downgrade.

Update: His name is Jérôme Kerviel. More from the Wall Street Journal:

The bank identified the trader as Jerome Kerviel. Mr. Kerviel, 31, joined Societe Generale in August 2000 and was working as a trader on the futures desk at the bank's headquarter near Paris. He was in charge of futures hedging on European equity market indices, known as "plain vanilla" futures.

The bank said he was able to dupe the bank's own security system because he had inside knowledge of the control procedures gained from previous jobs with the bank. (Backroom knowledge pays in this case)

Though Societe Generale says it first learned of what it termed "massive fraudulent directional positions" on Jan. 19, it waited until it could close out those trades before going public with the problem. Winding down the trades, the bank said, resulted in a €4.9 billion write-down, making it potentially the largest loss ever from an alleged rogue trader. (Those recent equity market falls would not made the positions any smaller).

Star Power for Obama...

His warm-up acts came straight from the A-list: the singer Usher, the actress Kerry Washington, and the actor Chris Tucker. They walked on stage to deafening cheers. But they were here not as performers, but as recruiters for Saturday's primary.

He's really concentrating on making sure that his supporters turn out, especially youth who could be considered apathetic.

Can Gordon Hack the PMQs bear pit?

via Mike Smithson at PB.com

According to a report in the Independent yesterday Gordon Brown is telling friends that the public is being increasingly repelled by PMQs and that the Commons exchanges are now of little use in discussing the issues of the day. He’s reported as saying that “nothing prepares you” for the ferocity of a packed chamber in full cry” and that the weekly event is worse than it has ever been.

Tony Blair was a PMQ master, complete with his 'plastic fantastic' tabulated folder. If the answer didn't happen to be there, he just batted it off or made reference to the Tories' time in London. Brown's eyesight makes it difficult for him to use the same folder system, and maybe he isn't completely comfortable with the opposition benches vocally baying for his blood on a weekly basis.

However, if Westminster is the Mother of all parliaments, and the UK the greatest democracy, then the least that can be expected is vocal opposition in a healthy debate over the country. PMQ is also one of the few times that the Lib Dems and Tories can get traction on issues, such as the consistent Northern Rock question from David Cameron in the last couple of weeks. It can backfire though, as a PM on fire can really give heart to his MPs before they go home to their constituenties.

Although with the polls giving him a landslide loss, you could be forgiven for not wishing to front.

Update:
Here's a snippet of the "packed chamber at full cry".

Les 400 coups, or 314 of them?

In the movie "Les 400 Coups", a youngster played by Jean-Pierre Léaud is disowned by his parents and thrown into the state juvenile system for his crimes. "Les 400 Coups" literally translates as the 400 Blows. Today saw the leaking of a document prepared by Jacques Attali, a former advisor to Francois Mitterand, with 314 ways to "unleash economic growth" in France. Sounds good doesn't it?

To Bernard Fixot, the editor of this review who hoped that it would be launched in book form before being pre-empted on a news website, the leak was considered "Theft, concealment and forgery". Especially when it was to be launched amid great fanfare, and make some money for the (hard copy) publishers. That doesn't relate to the content though.

Mitterand once described Attali, the author of said report thus:

“I don’t need a computer; I’ve got Attali.”

The words of a past advisor to a socialist president wouldn't encourage great confidence in the majority of sitting MPs. However, he has come up with some good ideas to modernise France out of its (well earned) reputation for being a nanny state, and failing to make improvements in areas such as the public sector since the second world war. Despite the good idea, there is no 'mode d'emploi' (user guide) to go with the suggestions. The implementation is thus left up to the current Government, whose Prime Minister is now outpolling the President in terms of popularity.

Oh yes, and even the author has a bearish outlook on the state of the French economy:

“France remains very largely a society of connivance and privileges”, Mr Attali says, in a leaked draft of the report.

Some of the key suggestions include:

• Each child should have mastered French, English, the three Rs, Information Technology and the ability to work in groups by the time they complete their first year of high school.
• 10 centres of excellence for higher learning and research to be established around the country, as well as having the means for France to become a leader in fields to matter in the future.
• Link together towns and suburbs known as 'Ecopolis', integrating green and communications technology.
• Very high speed Internet for all, whether at work or at home.
• Reduction of old departements administrative set-up into more regional structures, and urban councils.
• Freeing up retail business to trade on their own terms. It is illegal to affix the word "Soldes" (sale) unless in the government mandated period. This is crazy.
• Freeing up quotas on taxis, hairdressers, vets and lawyers. A bit of competition would only benefit consumers wouldn't it?

Less bureaucrats, more flexible workforce, less waste. The suggestions also seem to rebalance the immense tax burden that is place on those in the private sector who subsidise the benefits, conditions and retirement of those who work in the public; a polarising gripe considering how large the layers of bureaucracy make the French public service. There will be a summer of discontent and riots if this plan is implemented too viciously, and the French will be up to their old tricks in taking to the streets.
Sarkozy is still acting on the strength of the mandate he garnered in his own election, and that of his parliamentary colleagues. He is acting, because he can see the fabric of the nation fraying under the weight of its generosity, built up over the post-war generations.

The final word goes to Marine Le Pen of the National Front (remember her father Jean-Marie?) tagging Mr Attali as Attila (boom boom):

"because this is a precise and organised plan for ensuring the death of the French nation as we know it”.

You know what, she's absolutely right. The French nation as it is cannot continue to survive: it must follow the Darwinian philosophy of evolving or dying.

Update: Sarkozy's Parliamentary Majority is 314. Coincidence?

Cabotage: Sabbotage or Sage?

Is the Australian government showing its first signs of shifting left, despite its promises of economic conservatism?

KEVIN Rudd will clamp down on overuse of foreign-owned ships to transport freight around the nation's coastline in a bid to bolster the shipping industry. The Prime Minister is also set to require foreign vessels in Australian waters to observe an International Labour Organisation convention guaranteeing fair pay and conditions for all seafarers. In a shift in approach from that of the previous Howard government, Labor will review coastal shipping laws to uncover ways to lift the domestic shipping fleet's share of the domestic freight market from its current level of about 80 per cent.

The last I remember of the ILO was when they scuttled attempts to man the wharves in Australia with non-union labour, circa Peter Reith and the early days of the docks crisis. The Maritime Union of Australia, at the time on the receiving end of those reforms, will certainly be the main beneficiary. Paddy Crumlin, the MUA secretary was certainly excited after meeting with Albanese:

"He said we'd be going back to the platform."

The platform in question consists of some ambiguously worded resolutions from last year's Labor national conference. My concern here is the inflationary effect of higher wages on the dockside (and at sea) being passed on to consumers and aiding inflation which is already rising. It is of such concern that the former Razor Gang could now be renamed the Axe Gang. Furthermore, as foreign operators are locked out of operating domestic cargo routes, a regime of quasi-protectionism begins to appear. Cabotage is not a good policy for a government that had promised to be freer of union influence than its predecessors, and this looks suspiciously like payback.

Explanation of Cabotage: The right of a country to operate internal traffic, especially air traffic, using its own carriers and not those of other countries

Update: Preview Clip from the ABC(AU) dramatisation of the events on the waterfront.

Hillary Wins again...Bring on South Carolina

The New York senator had 51 percent of the vote to Obama’s 45 percent, with nearly 90% precincts reporting. Edwards faded to a distant third place with 4 percent of the vote.

The holding of the Casino Caucuses have been a real dog fight. Firstly agreed month ago by the Democrats, only to be challenged in court by supporters of the Clinton camp after the endorsement of the the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Local went to Obama. It was also the first time we saw Bill Clinton loose his cool on the campaign trail, specifically with regard to that lawsuit.


You'll have the South Carolina results soonish...I'm not going to pick between John McCain and Mick Huckabee.

Best of (other) Blog

Thought I might include some of the better blogs that I've come across my time on the interweb, and since I'm not explicitly commentating on politics myself, I've filed under non-political. It's also an exercise in waiting for the Democratic numbers to come through!
The criteria I've tried to judge by are:

• They are not the output or comment blog of a print/tv/radio outlet


• They occasionally morph into newsmakers, rather than newstakers (which this site truly is)


• They have something that distinguishes them from other, and are thought provoking.

Of course, you'd need to rank them across the political spectrum and by country. I've forgone the use of conservative, liberal so as not to confuse the readers from Australia. So:

US Left
Daily Kos: Particularly remembered for comments from Bill O'Reilly who declared that Satan was running the Kos, and that readers of such 'far-left websites' are devil worshippers. If Bill says it's that bad, it must be good.

The Huffington Post: Since its inception in 2005, by Arianna Huffington, this has blossomed into a must stop for left-learners, with many heavy hitters and celebrities, as well as a core group of regulars make it worthwhile reading.

US Right
The Drudge Report: Although missing the punch for big stories that appeared (such as the Newsweek's' withholding of the Lewinsky story), there are still little nuggets of gold on a site that is very 'link heavy', and a little difficult to navigate (Thank god for tabs in browsers, I still keep heading back there).

Power Line:A triumvirate of lawyers press the conservative cause here, with Time Magazine's Blog of The Year award, and there is always interesting content, some which may feature here by link. No long winded personal rants here, it's pretty succinct and crisp. These guys aren't soft on Republicans either, and will call them for working against America and its interests

UK Left
Recess Monkey: Parliamentary Insider's blogs, that always has the who, what, where, and how of apparently anything that moves inside and around the Palace of Westminster. Although previously not allowing comments to focus on their output, they've opened up the blog, and have "interesting" photos of MPs at events.

Newer Labour: Simple blog advocating how a post Blair Labour party should advance, which will be particularly interesting when the election really starts to get on the boil. Interesting links from someone who clearly has an insight inside. Self described as Labour's soft left.

UK Right
Guido Fawkes (Paul Staines): In his younger days, the now unmasked author of this blog described his politics as 'Margaret Thatcher" on steroids. A critic of the cosy relationship between media and politics, he often obtains documents from political insiders, such as Peter Hain's leadership documents.

Conservative Home: Although not official Conservative fodder, this does give coverage of UK politics from a conservative perspective, with lots of extra policy material and updated regularly, you do get a flavour of politics from the right

AU Left
Larvatus Prodeo: I would have put Red Rad in here, had it not retired in 2005. LP is a broad and broadly inclusive and occasionally cutting blog, with many contributors, who all think before posting, which makes a change from other blogs on the interweb. I might fail on that criterion right there.

John Quiggin: An older statesman of the blogosphere, Quiggin's insight into economics is not to be sniffed at. You can find him in the AFR, but the blog is certainly seperate, and it's not always serious, thick and boring (as far as economic commentary goes)

AU Right
Andrew Landeryou: Shaming the nameless, and naming the shameless. Landeryou takes his readers through an American prism of commentary on Oz Politics, never short of patriots, traitors and hacks. Interesting relationships with university pollies haven't stopped his ability to scoop, or his distaste for left MSM.

Tim Blair: What hasn't Tim Blair done over the last few years? Opinion editor for the Telegraph, Bulletin opinion writer. He won't be blogging for a while, as he's going under the knife for abdominal cancer. Maybe the surgery will mellow him out? His painkillers at one stage allowed him "to watch Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth without twitching." I wish him all the best.

Romney Wins again....Democrats Counting

Romney takes gold again, but other candidates had gone to South Carolina, where delegates are automatically awarded to the winner, this not being the case in NV:

“Today, the people of Nevada voted for change in Washington. For far too long, our leaders have promised to take the action necessary to build a stronger America, and still the people of Nevada and all across this country are waiting. Whether it is reforming health care, making America energy independent or securing the border, the American people have been promised much and are now ready for change.”

Counting for the Democrats has begun: Hillary and Barack neck a neck with 6% counted. Results as they come in available here

Horse Trading and Brokered Conventions

Ruth Marcus in the Washington Post ponders what the outcome of Super Tuesday would make towards the respective conventions to be held in Minneapolis/St Paul for the GOP, and Denver for the Democrats.

We're reminded of 'The Superdelegates' (hell of a title to have), and their impact on the nomination of Walter Mondale:

There was just one glitch: Mondale was about 40 delegates short. Hart had won California; even worse, Mondale had not done well enough there to pick up as many delegates as the campaign had counted on. So frantic Mondale aides hit the phones to the superdelegates. These were the Democratic insiders who had been given a big new voice in the process, a change to party rules engineered by Mondale backers anticipating the need for just such a firewall. Mondale managed to pull it off that day.

Although John Edwards may be out of the main game, by picking up the rudimentary amount of delegates with 15% of the vote, he can have significant sway as to whom these votes will flow to. A stronger than expected vote for Edwards could mean the end of Hillary, and by that I mean off the ticket.

Edwards and Obama have acted in unison of late, particularly in the New Hampshire Debate, where they both took debating potshots at Hillary, while defending each other slightly. If Edwards had to choose to park his delegates with one of the front runners, it would certainly be Barack. Note that when a candidate withdraws, their slate of delegates is no longer bound, but the recommendation of the person they were originally bound to vote for would hold a lot of sway.

Here's where the horsetrading becomes interesting. It is not implausible for a gentleman's agreement to cut Hillary out. Edwards delivers his candidates to Obama, and Obama, obligingly, invites him to run for Vice-President on his ticket. The task is now especially difficult for HRC, as she is competing with an electoral beast with two heads. Taking on one of the remaining candidates leaves another to creep forward, with complacency not achieving anything. Hillary's results on Super Tuesday are hence vitally important, not only for keeping her competitive, but to see off the other two

This opens up a further hypothetical, of whom Hillary would select as her vice-presidential running mate. If there is bad blood between the trio, HRC may select outside, bringing into the range the possibilities range Kuccinich, Richardson and Biden. Which raises another question; just how important is the quality of a VP candidate on a ticket, and if the scenario follows, it be a "HILLARY CLINTON/candidate x" campaign.

Back to the Superdelegates, who account for one-fifth of the votes on the floor and are made up of:

• All Democratic members of the United States Congress
• Democratic governors
• Various additional elected officials
• Members of the Democratic National Committee

Clinton currently leads the list of congressional endorsements, and could play havoc with the strange goings on discussed above. Legal challenges from states that have had their delegates 'unseated' could also play. Can't say the race is boring anyway.

As for the Republicans, well, Michigan's results hasn't helped anyone sorting the proverbial from clay. Writing before the Michigan vote, Peter Baker of the Washington Post gets caught up in brokered fever:

If Romney wins his home state today(and he did), then the first three major contests will have produced three winners after former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa and McCain's triumph in New Hampshire. Even if McCain wins today in Michigan and manages to keep the momentum rolling into South Carolina on Saturday, Rudy Giuliani waits in Florida, and if the former New York mayor wins there on Jan. 29, the Republicans could head into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 with no clear front-runner.

I've also come across delegate widgets from socialmedia.biz via my direct democracy, I find them quite handy! Get your own here
Note the Democratic counter exclude those superdelegates.

Romney Wins...GOP Favourite Lacking

Mitt Romney won convincingly in his birth state, beating elder senator John McCain into second, to really throw open the nominations field for the Republican presidential nomination.

• Romney: 38.92%


• McCain: 29.67%


• Huckabee: 16.1%


• Paul: 6.27%


• Thompson: 3.7%


• Giuliani: 2.75%


• Hunter 0.33%

On the Republican side, as noted previously, Hillary's only danger was to be outpolled by the 'uncommitted' voters (ie not Hillary or anyone else on the ballot), and she saw that off easily, taking over half of the vote. The nearest actual candidate was Dennis Kucinich on 3.66%.

Update:
Romney's victory speech.

Guess what they're -- guess what they're doing in Washington?They're worrying.
Because they realize -- the lobbyists and the politicians realize that America now understands that Washington is broken and we're going to do something about it.

You see, America -- America understands that Washington has promised that they'd secure our borders, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they would live by high ethical standards, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they'd fix social security, but they haven't
Washington told us that they'd get us better health care and better education, but they haven't.
Washington told us they'd get us a tax break for the middle income Americans, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they'd cut back on the earmarks and the pork barrel spending, but they haven't.
And Washington told us they'd reduce our dependence on foreign oil, but they haven't.

And who is going to get the job done? We are.
[...]

American voters said that knowing how America works is more important than knowing how Washington works. And what we're going to see in the next few days is the Democrats saying that they're the party of change.
[...]
And I think they would bring change to the America -- just not the kind we want. You see, I think they take their inspiration from the Europe of old -- big government, big brother, big taxes. They fundamentally in their hearts believe that America is great because we have a great government. And we do have a great government, but that's not what makes us the best nation, the strongest nation, the greatest nation on earth. What makes this such a great nation is the American people. I take my inspiration from Ronald Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush.

Michigan Only Matters to the Republicans

When the democrats moved their convention forward, their sanction from the DNC was for all their delegates to be rules invalid. There hence has been no campaigning or advertising in Michigan from the Democratic Party, leaving independent voters the choice to choose "none of the above" on the Democratic ballot (as none of the major candidates is on the papers, bar Hillary) or turn their attention to the Republican Race, and make their mark on the battle between McCain and Romney. The independents came hard for McCain in New Hampshire, but this is Romney's fathers' state, and he should pray for a win that keeps him in the game. He would hope that his father's brand flows down even now. If he doesn't poll well, he's dead man walking.

Update:
First Wave of Exit Polls
Per Ambinder:
GOP Primary Voters: 68% Republican, 25% Indy, 7% Dem
Majority of GOP primary voters say economy the #1 issue
More (57%) care about stance on issues than leadership qualities (40%)
44% say they decided in the final week

Update 2:
Democrats want a contest!

HRC wants to dance, can she keep in step with Obama?

Normal Service Resumed

In an undoubtedly difficult and cutting interview with Tyra Banks (cough), Hillary Clinton has revealed she would prefer to be on Dancing with the Stars, failing herself when it came to ANTM and American Idol. Interestingly, she notes that "plus ça change":

Asked whether she does any of a number of popular dances, including hip-hop, Clinton said she’d heard of them and that they were “variations of what I did like 30, 40 years ago.”“Everything gets recycled and gets a different name,” Clinton said.

Could HRC be accused of being Bill Clinton recycled with a different name?

Oh Corey...

I wouldn't normally descend into this crass story, but I can't help but have my two cents worth; I've even created a new tag to go with this!

Young Corey Delaney, a sixteen year old resident of Narre Warren in Melbourne's south east (Australia), did what every teenager dreams of: He threw a party. But Corey is a member of generation z, who know exactly how to harness the power of Web 2.0, and advertised it openly on his myspace account, and no doubt details were forwarded by that other tool of modern technology; SMS. Either that, or he's foolish enough to underestimate it's reach.

In the end, 500 yoofs arrived, and like any party where gatecrashers tend to fill it, got out of control. It's the same all over the world: gathering of teenagers+alcohol+lack of supervision= trouble. The neighbours called the local constabulary, but the first patrol was repelled with missile thrown by a thronging mob. The air wing and dog squad had to be deployed to convince guests that it was well beyond last drinks. The Commissioner of Police wishes for $AU20,000 to be repaid for the extra call-outs. His exploits garnered him international attention, with grabs all over the world, even on Sky News (UK). Have a gander here.

Parents obviously distressed, and wanting to talk to their child. Probably embarrassed too, to have to deal with their son through various media forms, as he's not returning their calls and has decided to hide with friends while the heat dies down.

I'm a little sad that the media hasn't gone after him, and I bloody hope there'll be no outlets paying him for an exclusive; it'd just encourage him further. Glad that I'll forever be more eloquent than him:
Corey Worthington Delaney wrote at 1:20am

:take it:BREAKIT ^luvin dis shit^
Ur all Tha GOOD type !!!~~~Every1 HiT up
tha C-nut
Fkn (maKe) me a groUp Offica!
Sik.

Corey's Myspace Profile is here, but I'm not sure if it's him being over the top, or an ironic joke being put together by people who aren't fans of his. His facebook profile looks to be no better, with his last status update suggesting he is "rearranging his tackle".

Is this a reflection of a society that gives celebrity status to anyone who causes mischief. I hope his star fizzles as quickly as it appeared. He's blown any chance of a normal job, but he maybe he didn't want that in the first place. He's also an enterprising little bugger, who was charging $1 donations until the venue was full, and then $10 for any late comers. Business acumen...next he'll be fronting motivational seminars. A (non-idolistic) gem from Yok who sums it up perfectly:

I fail to see what is so cool about a bunch of idiotic teenage gobshites worshipping some preening tool who is leeching fame from fucking up, shirking responsibility, hiding in his house when shit went down and hiding like a bitch from his patents, to be honest.but if you all want to live in your own little world, feel free, just remember that you'll be bagging my groceries for the next 20 years.

Hain and Osborne seperate cases, but both wrong on donations

For perspective, let's take the word of Learn Direct, and say the base salary for Westminster MP is £60,675. This is corroberated by Tim Loughton, member for East Worthing and Shoreham, who despite being a lovely chap I'm sure, could use some help with the photo on his website; his eyebrows are positively haunting. As I'm assuming that both MPs are not fiddling their own expenses, the total income should remain the same.

Now to the two cases. In Peter Hain's, he has been accused of failing to declare £103,000, towards his tilt at the deputy leadership of the party. Now, being slightly ignorant, I hadn't realised that leadership positions in the UK Labour Party were not just the premise of its parliamentary wing (PLP), but of the wider party, including trade unions.
Quoth wikipedia:

The election took place using Alternative Vote in an electoral college, with a third of the votes allocated to MPs and MEPs, a third to individual members of the Labour Party, and a third to individual members of affiliated organisations, mainly trade unions.

So there is lobbying to be done, rather than hitting the phones over the weekend. Publicity needs money and the need for it is now clear. However, Hain's donations are approaching double his base salary, not to mention that his own funding was twice that of the eventual winner; something to be said for a lack of effective, "grassroots" campaigning on his part.

Half the donations flowed from a think tank called Progressive Policies Forum, which as far as I can tell, is an empty tank. I haven’t found anything published from searches of academic and other journals, and the only web hits come from the recent scandal itself. The conclusion to draw is that his bid was funded through a front think-tank, because front companies just don’t cut it anymore.

Hain has slightly obfuscated when he emerged and read a statement :

“I reasonably believed that the arrangements in place for my deputy leader campaign would be sufficient to ensure compliance with reporting requirements, but as it transpired, due to administrative failings this was not the case after early May.”

The Times seems to disagree with Hain's explanation, asking him to resign in their leading article:

The departure of a Cabinet minister from office for his failure to treat the rules with the honour they deserve would send a strong if belated signal that they will not be treated with disregard in future. [...] The search for legal loopholes would be discouraged. In different circumstances, Mr Hain might have ended up as deputy prime minister last summer. He should not remain as the Work and Pensions Secretary this winter.

David Cameron was naturally eager to bring the blowtorch to bear on Hain, but had forgotten to check whether his own party was in order. It emerged that his shadow chancellor had himself received £500,000 from the Conservative Party Central office, but had not registered it in his House of Commons personal register. Seven times his base salary. Emails have now been released, that show George Osborne’s attempts to have the matter clarified, and in an administrative sense, he appears to have done the right thing. However, such a large donation should be declared as a matter of course in a Members’ Register, so that his transparency and accountability is untarnished. The motivation to seek clarification seems to only to have occurred after the funding scandals that had rocked the Labor party (Lord Levy & Co).

So, as is often the case in politics, the lesser of two evils principle must be applied. Is it worse to be less than honest when accepting and then clarifying a donation that was made with specific conditions beneficial to Osborne? Or is accepting money from a think tank whose reasonable sole purpose is the provision of deputy leadership contest money?
The worst is Hain, but not far behind is Osborne. The minister of the crown, particularly with as large a portfolio as work and pensions, must consider his position. Osborne, should lodge the donation immediately in his register.

Media Performer of the Week

The timing of the Federal election in Australia, and the change of government before the first sitting of parliament creates a vacuum, which can be filled with other news, or politics can be firmly put on the agenda. Kudos then to new Assistant Treasurer Chris Bowen, who has managed to inject himself into debates and even occasionally trump his boss, Wayne Swan.

The member for Prospect in Sydney's East, and member of the NSW Right faction, has excelled where his predecessor Peter Dutton always lived in the shadow of Peter Costello. Appropriately, Dutton has been given a shadow finance shadow position.
Let's take a look:

January 13 2008
The Age: Whale hunt on as Greenpeace finds Japan's killer ship
Restraint urged on both sides of the conflict.

January 12 2008
The Australian: Labor to hunt wealthiest tax cheats
Rich tax cheats to be targets.

The Age: Decline no reason to raise rates: Bowen
Reserve Bank independent, but US market troubles should not have banks raising rates.

Herald Sun: Costello to challenge Nelson?
Jumps on Costello for not making clear his leadership ambitions, and hedging with a Macquarie Bank position.

Sydney Morning Herald: Ad crackdown to 'add balance': govt
Airlines and Telcos would need to advertise more inclusive prices so as not to deceive customers

January 11 2008
Fin 24: Clampdown on price-fixers
Cartels face jail time for colluding.

January 10 2008
Money Management: Govt to undo tax changes
With regard to clearing up the treatment of scrip for scrip transactions

So for creating more news than the Treasurer, he wins the Media Performer of the Week, although politics tends to have few performers, so there is no guarantee this will be awarded every week. He can't be accused of being lazy. In the guise of a boxing title belt, consider Bowen to hold the title unless someone outdoes him.

Nice work, if you can get it....

News reports are splashing that Tony Blair will take up a part time position with New York based JP Morgan Chase, on a salary of US$987,000. For ten to fifteen days a year, no doubt to impress clients, or get the inside track on Middle Eastern politics, it works out very nicely. It'll go some way to paying off the mortgage on the house he purchased in Connaught Square, late in his premiership.

"We operate our business all over the world, and Tony Blair will bring our
leaders and clients a unique and invaluable global perspective that is
especially critical in turbulent times like these," said Jamie Dimon, chairman
and CEO of the company.

Good on him for making the most of life after 10 Downing Street. For those politicians who claim they are underpaid, this should be stark motivation to make it to the very top, so that opportunities such as this open up. Either that or make sure that your safe seat, stays safe and that you keep it.

It's down to three

Bill Richardson has dropped out of the Democratic Presidential race, leaving three runners for two spots. Richardson's poor showing in both Iowa and New Hampshire contests certainly made things difficult, despite his wish to carry on until the Nevada primary and beyond. His positive nature was evident throughout the debates, but his fundraising and inability to compete with the popularity of the other candidates who are big name draws. He has already ruled out accepting an offer to become one of the remaining triuvirate's Vice Presidential partner, saying that he loves being Governor of New Mexico.

The NY Times Caucus blog had provided one of his campaign videos, that ranks up there with the most savvy I've seen so far.

Obama Concession

Obama is working is way through the crowd, and approaching the podium. He looks in a good mood still. U2's City of Blinding Lights is playing in the background.

Crowd still chanting O-Ba-Ma.

I love you back! I am still fired up and ready to go!

Barack congratulates Senator Clinton on her win. Speaks of views of a few weeks ago, where coming second would not have been possible, voters came out in record numbers for change.

In this election, there is something happening in America. There is something happening when men and women come in the snows of January for blocks because they believe in what this country can be. People young in mind and spirit, they know in their hearts that this time must be different.When they vote, they vote not just for a party but for their hopes, they are ready to take this country in a fundamentally different direction: Change is happening in America!

Crowd chants "We want change"

All of you who put some much heart and soul into this campaign, you can be the new majority, leading this country. We can disagree without being disagreeable. If we mobilise our voices, we can reach for something better, there is no destiny we cannot fulfil.Drug and insurance companies will get a seat at the table, but will not be able to buy every chair. Our new majority can end tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Pathways for success of kids, more pay and support for teachers. We can harness the ingenuity of farmers and scientists from the tyranny of oil and save the planet from the point of no return.

When I am President of the United States, we will end this war in Iraq and bring the troops home, we will finish the job against Al-Qaeda, care for veterans, we will never use 9/11 to stir up votes.

Praises other candidates, and patriots who serve the country honourably.

Our campaign has always been different because it's not just what I will do as President, it's what you, the citizens of the United States, the people who can do something to change it.Tonight belongs to staffers, volunteers, and organisers. No matter what obstacles stand in our, nothing can stand in the way of millions of voices calling for change. They will grow louder and more dissident in the months to come. There has never been anything false about hope.

A simple creed: Yes, we can.(Crowd...repeats and chants Yes we can)

It was a creed written into the founding documents, whispered by slaves in the night, sung by immigrants who pushed westward against the elements, women who reached for the ballot, and a king who took us to the mountain top, and said yes we can do justice and equality.Yes we can to opportunity, prosperity, to heal this nation, to repair this world.

Tomorrow we go south and west, struggle of textile workers not so different to the dishwasher in Las Vegas. We are one people, we are one nation and we will begin the next great chapter in American history, from coast to coast, from sea to shining sea with three words...Yes we can

Barack leaves to Stevie Wonders' Signed Sealed Delivered.

HRC Wins NH

Barack needs 5% swing from the last 36% to be counted. It's all over red rover, the college towns will not save him now. There's going to be a lot of soul searching in the OB camp, where did all the voters promised in the opinion poll go? It's tempting to think that those attending the expansive rallies are just there to be part of it, rather than actually turning up to the booth.
Bill Clinton will be proud, she's due to address her rally very soon, they're warming up

Update: Associated Press has called New Hampshire for Hillary. She's about to address her rally.

Huckabee conceding...Hillary 35.58%, Barack 34.51% with 26.24% counted

GOP Concessions

Mitt Romney, Rudy Guiliani have both made speeches looking forward to the next primaries, and paying their respects to New Hampshire

McCain Wins

"We showed the people of this country what a real comeback looks like," McCain said in a statement. "We're going to move on to Michigan and South Carolina and win the nomination."

With just under 15% counted on the Democrats

• Hillary Clinton 39.8%
• Barack Obama 36.63%
• John Edwards 16.71%

It's going to be a lot closer than the polls suggest, but exit polls suggest Obama will edge over.
Fox News has called New Hampshire for Obama.

Polls Closed in New Hampshire

10% Counted, no major changes to last update.

CNN and FoxNews have called the Republican Primary for John McCain

Early Results....8.97% Counted

Early results from Politico, and the Mac is definitely back, he's opened up a 10 point lead over Romney and a big drop to Huckaboom (11.86%)

On the Democratic Side there's only a one point difference, with Hillary on 37% just one point ahead of Obama, John Edwards sitting on 16.5%.

A few minutes till close of poll.

Is David Cameron tacking right?

Tory leader David Cameron has announced tougher restrictions on the award of the dole, introducing what is in effect, a Work For The Dole scheme. It has had success in Australia and the United States, in establishing a system of mutual obligation. If a government provides money to you, you must be either looking for work or be doing something of benefit to the community.

In taking a wider perspective, does this mean that the popularity of Cameron and his Tories, being built around a brand of 'compassionate conservatism', is being packed away? This suggests the preparation of a wider attack on those considered shirkers or bludgers within Britain. It makes perfect sense when putting together a manifesto, to pick off easy targets, such as benefit frauds to score easy votes. Let's see if there are more announcements to come along those lines.

Boris, Ken and some other guy dude get on the tube

The London Mayoral election set for May 1 promises to be interesting, if only for the clash of personalities of major candidates. 'Red' Ken Livingstone is back for a third bite of the cherry. His first win was as an independent candidate, his second after he was welcome back to the Labour fold. Boris Johnson, former editor of The Spectator, and current MP for Henley, is hoping to draw on his self deprecating manner, as well as leveraging appearances on HIGNFY and Top Gear among others, to become a populist mayor. With a salary that is commensurate with that of a UK Cabinet minister (£135k-ish), it's not to be sniffed at. The Liberal Democrat candidate will also feature, but the barbs will be flowing between the two major candidates, and the poor fellow (Brian Haddick) will have to jump in where he can. For a start, he has at least received the backing of Sir Elton John.

The voting system for the London Mayor position is the Supplementary Vote, where voters number their first preference, and their second if they so wish. If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round of counting, then the second preferences are distributed, so that one of the candidates can claim a majority in the second round. It makes the materials put out by smaller candidates important, as they would be able to indicate to whom the second preference should be awarded to. Smaller parties include The Greens, UKIP, BNP, One London, Stop Congestion Charging, and Timeout: who want to act as a balance and shy votes away from the BNP.

The broadcast of the live debate will be at 11pm on Thursday, ITV1.

Sold Out...High Turnout leaves stations short of paper

ABC News is reporting that due to the massive turnout being felt across the state, some smaller polling stations are going "right down to the wire with ballots they need". The Deputy Secretary of State in New Hampshire, has said that the shortage is with Democratic ballots, which is good news for the candidates but particularly good for Barack Obama, who has managed to draw out not just the supporters in his own ranks, but also appeal to the disaffected republicans and independent voters. I'll be trying to find some early results as the night wears on.

Update:
Perhaps the Secretary of State is allowing polling stations to print their own Democratic Ballot papers. Here the Republican ballot papers has a big "Sample" though the middle, and no red numbers down the bottom...The Democratic Ballot fails to have a sample though the middle, as well as including the red calibration numbers down the bottom. It would be a good strategy anyway.

Conservatives hating on Fox News?

It seems remarkable I know. But supporters of Ron Paul were marching in New Hampshire, as put by Scout Finch of Daily Kos:

That is one angry conservative mob. 100 years ago they might have had
torches and pitchforks. Almost makes you feel sorry for Sean Hannity.
Almost. Toward the end of the video you can hear people yelling "We
aren't falling for it anymore Sean!"

They rounded on Fox News host Sean Hannity, shouting their displeasure at having their candidate excluded from the Presidential Forum held last night on Fox. I guess we'll just have to see how Ron polls (no pun intended).

The abcNews/Facebook/WMUR9 Manchester Debate from New Hampshire

(Transcripts of the New Hampshire Debate are here [Republican] and here [Democrat])

Republican Half
I managed to catch the debate by watching the stream from WMUR9, the ABC affiliate in New Hampshire. As the streaming was playing up, I'm not sure how far along the Republican debate was. There were personality clashes all around, and as my Internet finally got into gear, I got the tail end of an argument between Ron Paul and Mitt Romney discussing the United States' foreign policy.

Paul opined that the reason that countries in the Middle East hate the US is not related to freedom, but to troops being present within their borders. Romney hit back, suggesting the Texan should research what a radical jihad is, as it was in his view a wish to destroy the United States, regardless of whether it was involved in foreign operation or not. All the Republicans rounded on Paul at this point.

The debate then moved to immigration, and the various methods of dealing with illegal immigration. Giuliani said he did not wish to deport the parents of children who were enrolled in NY schools while he was Mayor, because he didn't want children on the streets, it would be inhumane. McCain clashed with Romney for his attack ads in misrepresenting his alleged amnesty for illegals. In concluding this section, Romney reinforced that all the candidates believed in legal immigration, and this should not be confused with the former in a scare campaign.

At some stage, Fred Thompson was asked his opinion on the profits on oil companies, and if he would tax them to redistribute some of this. He stunned me with a clear "No". There was an opportunity for a lengthy diatribe on corporate America, but he wisely let it slide. He did remain silent during most of the debate, without injecting himself, or asking for additional speaking rights unless he was asked a question. He was good humoured though. He doesn't look like a winner at this stage. The price of oil was discussed, and I forget which candidate said it, but it was something along the lines of:
America needs to become energy independent, and every time with fill out from the bowser in the petrol forecourt, we may as well be sending cheques to extremist regimes.

McCain had a prepared a one liner/barb/smart Alec comment/joke (delete as appropriate) painting Romney as the candidate for change. This is certainly with regard to his changing stances on abortion and gun control for a start. I didn't hear anybody in the audience laugh, and Romney looked the more statesmanlike for ignoring the comment and asking for a real debate on the different policies of the candidates. Health care also figured, with the candidates refusing to offer government subsidised universal coverage. Mike Huckabee didn't quite hit his strides when it came to his economics, and his tax reform plan.

The tail-end of the Republican debate looked like a round of Fast Money, as the candidates made the most of the allocated time, and looked to score big. Few did, and cacophony reigned. As I read somewhere, the debate looked more like a squabble between family members, concerned they should keep major disagreements within the (Republican) family so as not to embarrass them.

(R) Winner
I'd score Romney the clear winner, for his calm under the fire of Huckabee and McCain, while still appearing natural. The losers were McCain for his childish attitude and Huckabee for not scoring on the opportunities he had. Thompson and Giuliani don't look like winners, and Ron Paul...well he'll continue being Ron whether he withdraws or not.

Half Time
At the half time break, the Republican Candidates stood up and shook hands, before being joined onstage by the four Democrats (Clinton, Obama, Edwards & Richardson), something I haven't seen before. So, it was all change at the break, as the Republican audience had to be shifted out and the Democratic moved in, and the stage reconfigured to seat four. It was a slightly surreal moment, as we sometimes forget that despite policy disagreements, many of the candidates being US Senators past and present have worked together. I don't think this warmth was faked.

Also, Charles Gibson was the moderator from ABCTV and he asked questions (of both sets of candidates) on national issues; whereas Scott Spralding, the political editor from the Manchester based WMUR-TV, asked questions that drilled down to the locale. The question from Spralding on letting tax cuts for higher incomes lapse was put in the context of two Professors teaching at St. Anselm College, where the debate was held. This kept the candidates on their toes.

I haven't seen much of Bill Richardson this campaign; he was punching above his weight on air. The only candidate who is a member of an executive branch (current New Mexico Governor) as well as the only one who has held a cabinet position (Energy Secretary under Bill Clinton). His pleas sounded a little desperate though, as he was always emphasising his difference of experience from the other candidates, rather than necessarily putting his own point forward. He was also mockingly offended when Charles Gibson 'forgot' to include him in polling results.

Hillary certainly didn't come across as natural. From the time she was first on air till her first question, she carried an almost robotic smile, one that said: "I know people need to see me smile, and I'm smiling". It didn't come across as natural confidence, perhaps pointing to the pressure recent polls have been weighing on her. The camera cuts to Chelsea (same robotic smile!) didn't help.

She also failed to respond directly to questions, saying mockingly that she was hurt by the presentation of polling in terms of likeability. She repeated, almost annoyingly, that what people were getting was 35 years of experience in administering change, and change was definitely a work that permeated both debates! She talked of her successes, and took umbrage at Obama for suggesting that words were inspirational, it was actions that actually mattered. Obama rightly took her to task with his simple and clear rhetoric.

Obama was genuine, carrying on his wish for the classification of politics to cease being horizontal (Liberal/Conservative, Democrat/Republican) to being vertical, with leaders being more accountable and answerable. He claimed that he had awakened a new class of people who would not have otherwise participated in this election, and that he would be able to heal America from their division of Red and Blue states. He batted off the criticisms that were earlier offered by Republicans about what weaknesses they would attack if they found themselves in a Presidential Race against Obama. Barack said he was not surprised, and this was straight out of the GOP playbook, hoping that people would make up their own mind.

John Edwards was the surprise packet for me. His accent does get to me sometimes, but when the question of health care came up, he passionately spoke up for the work he had done (with Obama interestingly enough) in ensuring that lobbyists in Washington were transparent in their hospitality toward Members of Congress, and described how his father and mother were the epitome of America's middle class, going to work at the mill every day so he could attend college, and that this was their election (the middle class, not parents). He also claimed that Washington was broken, not just in the Congress and White House, but the city itself. DC remained beholden to the aims of special interest groups who still have a lot of power. He said that he had fought against them before, and it was not easy, but the difference was that the fight was personal.

(D) Winner
Barack romped it in, appearing very much the statesman. When asked (last) if he would like to take back anything said during any previous debate, he said that there was always things he wanted to improve. He turned it into a beautifully multi-partisan statement among all Democratic candidates: that there is a marked difference between the Republican and Democratic debates, and that is something for all Democrats and their supporters to look forward to. Close to perfect.

(D) Runner Up
I expected that Hillary would fill this spot, but it goes to John Edwards. His passionate zeal and support for 'his' middle class stands him in good stead, and he projects an aura of compassion and care, while Hillary appeared too cold and ruthless. He had the intestinal fortitude to lay deaths at the feet of the health insurance companies, and excoriated them for their refusal to pay the medical fees of patients supposedly insure. His battle on health care alone makes him extremely viable for either spot on a Democratic ticket.

The Rest
Hillary must really be starting to worry now, her performance was not without weight or substance, but she looked a little out of her debt while making her sex as potential President to be a portent of massive change. Obama didn't mention his own origins. Hillary appeared a touch robotic and frisky when grilled on her record. Defensive even. I've already discussing Bill Richardson above, he'll have to score well in these early primaries to make it through.

So that's it, the next debate is the Fox News debate among Republican Candidates, with the controversy over the exclusion of Ron Paul from the Debate leading to the NH GOP withdrawing its sponsorship.

So now to the Granite State: New Hampshire

The definite victory of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton has given him additional momentum as he heads to the combined ABC/Facebook Debate. The television shorts are billing the double header like a pay-per-view boxing or wrestling event, and with good reason. Anything can happen in these debates, and often does. I had originally thought that the statistical dead-heat on the Democratic side would be between Barack and Hillary, finishing 1st and 2nd. Wrong again! Barack had an 8 point win, and the first steps toward 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Although in nominating convention delegate terms the win is small, if Obama can follow this through to NH, his rolling stone will gather little moss on the way down from the Senate to the White House.

Joe Biden has already dropped out, bordering on the insignificant with under 1% of the vote. Chris Dodd managed one better: being out polled by "uncommitted" voters: about as embarrassing as the runs of ten cricket batsmen being outscored by the Extras column.

On the Republican side, John McCain didn't even wait for the final results to come through from Iowa, he was already jetting across to New Hampshire, where the Intrade predictive markets give him about 80% chance of winning. It wouldn't have surprised him then that Mike Huckabee had won all bar 24 counties (one to Ron Paul, the rest to Mitt Romney). But like the armed forces veteran that he is, he's planning his next battle and allocating his limited resources where they will have the most firepower.

Who would have thought a month ago, Huck and Obama would be standout winners in Iowa? Few, and this is why the current race for the White House is so fascinating: The fields on both sides are still large for pre-New Hampshire, and the polls have not predicted the outcomes of the primaries. It can only get more interesting, with one of the more important the decisions belonging to Ron Paul. He has a remote chance of securing even a Vice-Presidential nomination, so does he choose to cut his losses and save his money (impressively raised through his Boston Tea Party: $5.2 Million) for an independent pitch at the Presidency, or as a candidate for the Constitution or the Libertarian parties, who would match his platform.

If he does decide to split, the cynic in me says he won't reach the same level of vote as Ross Perot did in 1992. This despite his boast and record as the Tax Payers' best friend scattered over television, online social networks and interstate highways: like this one near Reno.

Final Election Results

The Age, through the AEC, reports the final figures from the 2007 Federal Election after collating, checking and distributing preferences. As noted in the article, some interesting results from seats which would now fall into the 'Marginal Labor' category at the next Federal election. These include such as Bennelong, Corangamite and Deakin. On the flip side, there are Liberal seats that would now be considered 'Very Marginal Liberal' such as (triple recount) McEwen, which was not even on the radar of Coalition pollsters as seats at risk before Nov 25th.

Can Fran Bailey retain the seat next time, now that she has lost her ministry, and the profile associated with Australian Tourism campaigns such as the controversial WTBHAY? Could her association with model Lara Bingle gotten her over the line?

Another Election, and yet another under performance from the Greens. Despite the mainstreaming of Climate Change, partly through Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, as well as Kyoto ratification figuring as an election issue, Bob Brown's party only managed a .60% increase in first preferences across the country. In the Seat of Melbourne, Lindsay Tanner still held on, but the Liberals still managed to outpoll the Greens by a few hundred votes. Another one to watch for next time.

On a statewide basis, the Greens were very confident, almost certain in some quarters, to pick up the final Senate Seat in Victoria. In the wash up, they weren't even close, as David Feeney finished over quota to claim the final spot, which I thought would be fought out between Scott Ryan and Richard DiNatale (who thought he would knock off Bronwyn Pike in the Melbourne District at the previous two State Elections).
New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland each returned three Labor and three Coalition Senators, meaning that Kerry Nettle (of "Keep Your Rosaries Off My Ovaries fame) will not sit beyond 1 July.

It is also the end of the Democrats representation in the Senate. With its first Senator in 1977, and a notional balance of power from 1983 to 1996 (when Mal Colston resigned, and they shared the balance of power with Colston and Brian Harradine), the Democrats never quite recovered from the two punch of Meg Lees' defection to Labor in 1997 and the agreement to pass the Coalition's Goods and Services Tax legislation. The constant turnover of leaders (four in six years) never boded well for constant policy positions.

Many calls have been made to continue the Democrats brand, and to ready it for the election. My suggestion would be to follow the example set by the Liberal Democrats in the UK, although not to follow their turnover of leaders (three in two year). The Liberal Democrats' strength in the United Kingdom is their representation on Local Councils, where they are in joint control or control Councils in their own right. Of course, the powers of UK Local Governments are far greater than their Australian counterparts, particularly with regards to Council Tax,

The Democrats can start to build from the bottom up, and rebuild a brand and trust with an electorate that thought they had perished quite some time ago. In three years time they may not be ready to contest another Senate Race, but if they roll out across candidates Local Council quickly, 2013 looks like a resonable chance. I do question the logic of running your most recognised candidate, Laura Chipp (Don Chipp's daughter) in a seat like Isaacs, with apologies to Lyn Allison who think the current leader is either Stott-Despoja or Murray, where she would have made a far better second candidate, or in a very marginal seat (such as McEwen), where her (name) impact could have been of more significance.

Update
In the article on Laura Chipp provided above, The Age's Andra Jackson, suggests that Chipp only needed a 1.5% swing. In an important oversight this was the margin that Ross Fox, the Liberals's candidate, would have needed to take the seat from Labor. Laura needed (only) a 95%+ swing to take it.

Update II
Isn't it nice when you scoop Tim Colebatch? Although I still credit The Age for the original story on the House of Representatives.

Sarkozy's New Years Wishes

Nicholas Sarkozy must have retained the same team who designed his campaign website to build the French President's website, a very accessible and detailed version compared to Mitterand's old site. Sarkozy's is lacking an English version though.

Sarkozy gave his wishes for the New Year live from the Elysée Palace, a break with tradition where previous presidents pre-recorded their address, much like the Queen's Christmas Message. Perhaps the autocue is running a little too fast at times, and he loses some of the emphasis, especially when he is trying to explain that 2007 was only the beginning of a 'rupture' from the past, and that he will step up his efforts in 2008. More luck to him.

This morning he had emergency servicemen and women around to thank them for being on duty the previous night, where only (!) 273 cars were set alight in that great French tradition. This is down on the 313 from the previous year. 259 people were detained nationwide. I don't think there could be anything worse than stepping out onto a narrow french street where you'd parked your car the night before to find it reduced to a smouldering pire. I can only imagine the cost of insuring if you park on the street in the 'banlieues' skirting France's major cities reknowned for torching cars.

Iowa Caucus

As the American Primary season starts, John McCain has fired a last shot before the (primary) voters of Iowa caucus in their homes, local schools and halls. As Politico points out, it is reminiscent of the more shocking video broadcast nationally by Tom Tancredo, who has since withdrawn from the race; more content with having put immigration issues such as porous borders on the agenda for debate by the remaining candidates, than splitting votes in what is already a large field on both sides of the Congressional aisle.

Speaking of, the race begins in earnest, but not without a last minute fumble by Team Clinton. Hilary spoke of President Pervez Musharraf as a candidate on the ballot papers, despite the election being Parliamentary, with the goal of electing a Prime Minister. I don't think this small matter will play deeply into the minds of Iowans, but reinforces just how closely each candidate is being scrutinized by their opponents and the media. Primary season is ripe with chances to turn an off the cuff comment into a TV attack ad come next November.

In terms of media attention, the primaries seem to inversely reflect the attention given to them when the Presidential Election itself is underway. With 7 electoral college votes, the attention will move to the swing states with Electoral College votes that matter, such as that small matter in Florida with 27 votes.

Another New Year, Another New Blog

As the name suggests, I hope this will be a site of some punditry value, where debate and exchanges will occur. Then again, they don't call pundits 'talking heads' for nothing. I intend to cover some American, Australian and UK Politics. America has its Primary season ahead very shortly, Australia has a new Government and the UK could have an election anytime now; the decision is in the hands of Gordon Brown.

The above is certainly not an exhaustive list, as there will doubtlessly be incursions into other matters such as the European Union, Pakistani elections as well as politics at a more micro level, such as State Governments and Cities.

Let's get started shall we?

Launched 01/01/08 12:01AM