Sunday, January 6, 2008

So now to the Granite State: New Hampshire

The definite victory of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton has given him additional momentum as he heads to the combined ABC/Facebook Debate. The television shorts are billing the double header like a pay-per-view boxing or wrestling event, and with good reason. Anything can happen in these debates, and often does. I had originally thought that the statistical dead-heat on the Democratic side would be between Barack and Hillary, finishing 1st and 2nd. Wrong again! Barack had an 8 point win, and the first steps toward 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Although in nominating convention delegate terms the win is small, if Obama can follow this through to NH, his rolling stone will gather little moss on the way down from the Senate to the White House.

Joe Biden has already dropped out, bordering on the insignificant with under 1% of the vote. Chris Dodd managed one better: being out polled by "uncommitted" voters: about as embarrassing as the runs of ten cricket batsmen being outscored by the Extras column.

On the Republican side, John McCain didn't even wait for the final results to come through from Iowa, he was already jetting across to New Hampshire, where the Intrade predictive markets give him about 80% chance of winning. It wouldn't have surprised him then that Mike Huckabee had won all bar 24 counties (one to Ron Paul, the rest to Mitt Romney). But like the armed forces veteran that he is, he's planning his next battle and allocating his limited resources where they will have the most firepower.

Who would have thought a month ago, Huck and Obama would be standout winners in Iowa? Few, and this is why the current race for the White House is so fascinating: The fields on both sides are still large for pre-New Hampshire, and the polls have not predicted the outcomes of the primaries. It can only get more interesting, with one of the more important the decisions belonging to Ron Paul. He has a remote chance of securing even a Vice-Presidential nomination, so does he choose to cut his losses and save his money (impressively raised through his Boston Tea Party: $5.2 Million) for an independent pitch at the Presidency, or as a candidate for the Constitution or the Libertarian parties, who would match his platform.

If he does decide to split, the cynic in me says he won't reach the same level of vote as Ross Perot did in 1992. This despite his boast and record as the Tax Payers' best friend scattered over television, online social networks and interstate highways: like this one near Reno.