Ruth Marcus in the Washington Post ponders what the outcome of Super Tuesday would make towards the respective conventions to be held in Minneapolis/St Paul for the GOP, and Denver for the Democrats.
We're reminded of 'The Superdelegates' (hell of a title to have), and their impact on the nomination of Walter Mondale:
There was just one glitch: Mondale was about 40 delegates short. Hart had won California; even worse, Mondale had not done well enough there to pick up as many delegates as the campaign had counted on. So frantic Mondale aides hit the phones to the superdelegates. These were the Democratic insiders who had been given a big new voice in the process, a change to party rules engineered by Mondale backers anticipating the need for just such a firewall. Mondale managed to pull it off that day.
Although John Edwards may be out of the main game, by picking up the rudimentary amount of delegates with 15% of the vote, he can have significant sway as to whom these votes will flow to. A stronger than expected vote for Edwards could mean the end of Hillary, and by that I mean off the ticket.
Edwards and Obama have acted in unison of late, particularly in the New Hampshire Debate, where they both took debating potshots at Hillary, while defending each other slightly. If Edwards had to choose to park his delegates with one of the front runners, it would certainly be Barack. Note that when a candidate withdraws, their slate of delegates is no longer bound, but the recommendation of the person they were originally bound to vote for would hold a lot of sway.
Here's where the horsetrading becomes interesting. It is not implausible for a gentleman's agreement to cut Hillary out. Edwards delivers his candidates to Obama, and Obama, obligingly, invites him to run for Vice-President on his ticket. The task is now especially difficult for HRC, as she is competing with an electoral beast with two heads. Taking on one of the remaining candidates leaves another to creep forward, with complacency not achieving anything. Hillary's results on Super Tuesday are hence vitally important, not only for keeping her competitive, but to see off the other two
This opens up a further hypothetical, of whom Hillary would select as her vice-presidential running mate. If there is bad blood between the trio, HRC may select outside, bringing into the range the possibilities range Kuccinich, Richardson and Biden. Which raises another question; just how important is the quality of a VP candidate on a ticket, and if the scenario follows, it be a "HILLARY CLINTON/candidate x" campaign.
Back to the Superdelegates, who account for one-fifth of the votes on the floor and are made up of:
- All Democratic members of the United States Congress
- Democratic governors
- Various additional elected officials
- Members of the Democratic National Committee
Clinton currently leads the list of congressional endorsements, and could play havoc with the strange goings on discussed above. Legal challenges from states that have had their delegates 'unseated' could also play. Can't say the race is boring anyway.
As for the Republicans, well, Michigan's results hasn't helped anyone sorting the proverbial from clay. Writing before the Michigan vote, Peter Baker of the Washington Post gets caught up in brokered fever:
If Romney wins his home state today(and he did), then the first three major contests will have produced three winners after former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee's victory in Iowa and McCain's triumph in New Hampshire. Even if McCain wins today in Michigan and manages to keep the momentum rolling into South Carolina on Saturday, Rudy Giuliani waits in Florida, and if the former New York mayor wins there on Jan. 29, the Republicans could head into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 with no clear front-runner.
I've also come across delegate widgets from socialmedia.biz via my direct democracy, I find them quite handy! Get your own here
Note the Democratic counter exclude those superdelegates.
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