Currently, the most politically divisive issue relates to bowser prices at the local forecourt. Brendan Nelson's budget reply was sprinkled with opposition to many of the means testing provisions, as well as his pledge to cut fuel excise, which is interesting in itself.
Rudd strategy to provide relief is to give assistance in the broader "family" budget and lift the burden through tax and transfer payments. This frees up money to pay for the rising cost of petrol. If you're not a working family though, you're missing out on that end.
Nelson's excise play was openly opposed by his Treasury spokesman, Malcolm Turnbull. He's now fallen into line, but not without some damage to the consistency of the position adopted. I personally disagree on two fronts. The first is that for each cent 'saved' by motorists, there is huge amount of money to be set aside for it in the forward estimates period, that can certainly be spent on infrastructure projects. The other has particular regard to the huge rises in the cost of raw oil, and any potential savings to be wiped out, especially with the sharp rise in the price of crude. The fluctuations, with an increasing trend, would make very little difference.
Then again, if you're not a motorist, you miss out on the relief there. It's being sold as a 'real' tax cut.
Although it feels like we've come full circle on the link between Petrol and by elections. The Age editorialised on 26 April 2002:
A fortnight before the Ryan by election, Mr Howard cut fuel excise by 1.5 cents a litre and cancelled twice-yearly indexation for inflation - at a cost to revenue of $2.6 billion over four years. Then on the eve of the Aston by election, a turning point in the Coalition's fortunes, he launched an inquiry, to report back last month, into fuel taxation and pricing.Sound familiar? Replace Ryan with Gippsland, and the method of cutting fuel costs. That was the last major change to the pricing of fuel in the country, at least from the government side. The then Howard government also gave back the "Tax on A Tax" by eliminating the GST applied on fuels.
Not surprisingly, the Nationals candidate in that by election, Darren Chester, is 100% in support of that same policy, despite the three corner contest between Labor, Nationals and Liberals:
“Cutting the fuel excise by five cents per litre is a saving of about $3 per tank on the family Falcon and the benefits would flow through to reduced transport costs for industry."The by election caused by the retirement of Peter McGauran becomes the first test of whether the electorate feels Kevin Rudd has delivered on the style promised on the hustings in November last year. Do families feel that the government has done all within its power to limit increases in grocery, house and petrol prices. The realpolitik comes into play now, and it tests Brendan Nelson in particular.
The other sentiment that may flow through (and I've been waiting for it) is that consumers have to realise that their contribution to stem global warming needs to be paid out of their pockets. Turnbull has even called for petrol to be excluded from the trading scheme. The effects unfortunately don't stop on the petrol side, with the Oz reporting that the European Union has estimated the prices of cars themselves may rise by up to 6%.
Wayne Swan, enjoying the limelight from a budget that was seen a firm but fair, can only look forward to more leadership tension within the Liberal party.
Kevin Rudd appeared on the ABC program Q&A, and was very smooth. It reminds of the UK based TV show called "Question Time" and I think this is where the show will head, as Difference of Opinion fell flat in delving too far into subject material without making it interesting. The format would not have suited John Howard, as I think he would really struggled to keep that slightly petulant side of his persona in check. An ABC audience is not a place where Howard thrived; perhaps that's part of why there was a large amount of control on media appearance and set pieces were always tight.
Rudd on the other hand appeared relaxed and eager to talk, and was open to all sorts of question, some which he dodged very nicely (he must have swotted up), although Tony Jones is going to need to watch that the questioners don't run the show with continuous supplementaries and interjections, it kills the flow.
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