Romney Wins...GOP Favourite Lacking

Mitt Romney won convincingly in his birth state, beating elder senator John McCain into second, to really throw open the nominations field for the Republican presidential nomination.

• Romney: 38.92%


• McCain: 29.67%


• Huckabee: 16.1%


• Paul: 6.27%


• Thompson: 3.7%


• Giuliani: 2.75%


• Hunter 0.33%

On the Republican side, as noted previously, Hillary's only danger was to be outpolled by the 'uncommitted' voters (ie not Hillary or anyone else on the ballot), and she saw that off easily, taking over half of the vote. The nearest actual candidate was Dennis Kucinich on 3.66%.

Update:
Romney's victory speech.

Guess what they're -- guess what they're doing in Washington?They're worrying.
Because they realize -- the lobbyists and the politicians realize that America now understands that Washington is broken and we're going to do something about it.

You see, America -- America understands that Washington has promised that they'd secure our borders, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they would live by high ethical standards, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they'd fix social security, but they haven't
Washington told us that they'd get us better health care and better education, but they haven't.
Washington told us they'd get us a tax break for the middle income Americans, but they haven't.
Washington told us that they'd cut back on the earmarks and the pork barrel spending, but they haven't.
And Washington told us they'd reduce our dependence on foreign oil, but they haven't.

And who is going to get the job done? We are.
[...]

American voters said that knowing how America works is more important than knowing how Washington works. And what we're going to see in the next few days is the Democrats saying that they're the party of change.
[...]
And I think they would bring change to the America -- just not the kind we want. You see, I think they take their inspiration from the Europe of old -- big government, big brother, big taxes. They fundamentally in their hearts believe that America is great because we have a great government. And we do have a great government, but that's not what makes us the best nation, the strongest nation, the greatest nation on earth. What makes this such a great nation is the American people. I take my inspiration from Ronald Reagan and George Herbert Walker Bush.

Michigan Only Matters to the Republicans

When the democrats moved their convention forward, their sanction from the DNC was for all their delegates to be rules invalid. There hence has been no campaigning or advertising in Michigan from the Democratic Party, leaving independent voters the choice to choose "none of the above" on the Democratic ballot (as none of the major candidates is on the papers, bar Hillary) or turn their attention to the Republican Race, and make their mark on the battle between McCain and Romney. The independents came hard for McCain in New Hampshire, but this is Romney's fathers' state, and he should pray for a win that keeps him in the game. He would hope that his father's brand flows down even now. If he doesn't poll well, he's dead man walking.

Update:
First Wave of Exit Polls
Per Ambinder:
GOP Primary Voters: 68% Republican, 25% Indy, 7% Dem
Majority of GOP primary voters say economy the #1 issue
More (57%) care about stance on issues than leadership qualities (40%)
44% say they decided in the final week

Update 2:
Democrats want a contest!

HRC wants to dance, can she keep in step with Obama?

Normal Service Resumed

In an undoubtedly difficult and cutting interview with Tyra Banks (cough), Hillary Clinton has revealed she would prefer to be on Dancing with the Stars, failing herself when it came to ANTM and American Idol. Interestingly, she notes that "plus ça change":

Asked whether she does any of a number of popular dances, including hip-hop, Clinton said she’d heard of them and that they were “variations of what I did like 30, 40 years ago.”“Everything gets recycled and gets a different name,” Clinton said.

Could HRC be accused of being Bill Clinton recycled with a different name?

So now to the Granite State: New Hampshire

The definite victory of Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton has given him additional momentum as he heads to the combined ABC/Facebook Debate. The television shorts are billing the double header like a pay-per-view boxing or wrestling event, and with good reason. Anything can happen in these debates, and often does. I had originally thought that the statistical dead-heat on the Democratic side would be between Barack and Hillary, finishing 1st and 2nd. Wrong again! Barack had an 8 point win, and the first steps toward 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Although in nominating convention delegate terms the win is small, if Obama can follow this through to NH, his rolling stone will gather little moss on the way down from the Senate to the White House.

Joe Biden has already dropped out, bordering on the insignificant with under 1% of the vote. Chris Dodd managed one better: being out polled by "uncommitted" voters: about as embarrassing as the runs of ten cricket batsmen being outscored by the Extras column.

On the Republican side, John McCain didn't even wait for the final results to come through from Iowa, he was already jetting across to New Hampshire, where the Intrade predictive markets give him about 80% chance of winning. It wouldn't have surprised him then that Mike Huckabee had won all bar 24 counties (one to Ron Paul, the rest to Mitt Romney). But like the armed forces veteran that he is, he's planning his next battle and allocating his limited resources where they will have the most firepower.

Who would have thought a month ago, Huck and Obama would be standout winners in Iowa? Few, and this is why the current race for the White House is so fascinating: The fields on both sides are still large for pre-New Hampshire, and the polls have not predicted the outcomes of the primaries. It can only get more interesting, with one of the more important the decisions belonging to Ron Paul. He has a remote chance of securing even a Vice-Presidential nomination, so does he choose to cut his losses and save his money (impressively raised through his Boston Tea Party: $5.2 Million) for an independent pitch at the Presidency, or as a candidate for the Constitution or the Libertarian parties, who would match his platform.

If he does decide to split, the cynic in me says he won't reach the same level of vote as Ross Perot did in 1992. This despite his boast and record as the Tax Payers' best friend scattered over television, online social networks and interstate highways: like this one near Reno.

Iowa Caucus

As the American Primary season starts, John McCain has fired a last shot before the (primary) voters of Iowa caucus in their homes, local schools and halls. As Politico points out, it is reminiscent of the more shocking video broadcast nationally by Tom Tancredo, who has since withdrawn from the race; more content with having put immigration issues such as porous borders on the agenda for debate by the remaining candidates, than splitting votes in what is already a large field on both sides of the Congressional aisle.

Speaking of, the race begins in earnest, but not without a last minute fumble by Team Clinton. Hilary spoke of President Pervez Musharraf as a candidate on the ballot papers, despite the election being Parliamentary, with the goal of electing a Prime Minister. I don't think this small matter will play deeply into the minds of Iowans, but reinforces just how closely each candidate is being scrutinized by their opponents and the media. Primary season is ripe with chances to turn an off the cuff comment into a TV attack ad come next November.

In terms of media attention, the primaries seem to inversely reflect the attention given to them when the Presidential Election itself is underway. With 7 electoral college votes, the attention will move to the swing states with Electoral College votes that matter, such as that small matter in Florida with 27 votes.